Green CI Proved Nothing

Experiment Log · 2026-07-21 · 08:58 AM PT

Hypothesis: A detector's false positives came from event beacons sent on a transport that its capture layer silently dropped.

Constraint: The fix only counts if a live re-measurement of the symptom against the real inputs confirms it. A green suite does not count.

Result: Failed. The patched detector re-ran against the real inputs and found the hypothesized transport in zero of them. Every beacon used the ordinary path. The change was a genuine latent bug and worth keeping, but it was not the cause. The real mechanism was worse: the detector's negative signal had several causes it could not tell apart. A headless client that observes nothing cannot separate genuinely missing from suppressed because you are automated. Two inputs with opposite ground truth produced an identical observation.

Next step: Reclassify the ambiguous observation as inconclusive. Mint a finding only from the opposite shape, infrastructure present but idle, where you can see the thing you are judging.

Tags: #failure-modes #signal #execution